The Impact of Economic Uncertainty on Fertility Intentions among Women of Childbearing Age: An Analysis of Underlying Mechanisms

In the context of persistently low fertility intentions, exploring how economic uncertainty reshapes the values of women of childbearing age and influences their fertility decisions is of considerable practical and policy relevance. This study conducted a survey of 458 women of childbearing age in Chongqing and constructed a three-dimensional analytical framework encompassing consumption, career, marriage, and childbearing. A multivariate logistic regression model was employed to empirically examine the factors influencing fertility intentions. The findings suggest that declining consumption capacity is associated with a counterintuitive rise in fertility intentions, a pattern particularly evident in urban areas. By contrast, unemployment and income instability related to occupational risk significantly reduce fertility intentions. Regional differences are also observed: urban women are more sensitive to unemployment risk, whereas rural women respond more strongly to income fluctuations. Differences in attitudes toward marriage and childbearing further exert a significant moderating effect on fertility decisions.