1672-8505

CN 51-1675/C

经济不确定性对育龄女性生育意愿的影响机理分析

The Impact of Economic Uncertainty on Fertility Intentions among Women of Childbearing Age: An Analysis of Underlying Mechanisms

  • 摘要: 在生育意愿持续低迷的背景下,探究经济不确定性如何重塑育龄女性的价值观并影响其生育决策,具有重要的现实意义与政策参考价值。文章基于重庆市458位育龄女性的实证研究,从生活样态、价值观念等维度构建消费观、职业观与婚育观分析框架,并采用多元Logistic回归模型实证检验育龄女性生育意愿的影响因素。研究发现,消费能力下降会触发生育意愿的逆向提升,这种现象在城市尤为明显。职业风险导致的失业、收入波动和收入风险都会降低生育意愿,且存在地区差异,城市女性对失业更敏感,农村女性对收入波动更敏感。婚育观念的取向差异对育龄女性生育决策存在显著调节效应。

     

    Abstract: In the context of persistently low fertility intentions, exploring how economic uncertainty reshapes the values of women of childbearing age and influences their fertility decisions is of considerable practical and policy relevance. This study conducted a survey of 458 women of childbearing age in Chongqing and constructed a three-dimensional analytical framework encompassing consumption, career, marriage, and childbearing. A multivariate logistic regression model was employed to empirically examine the factors influencing fertility intentions. The findings suggest that declining consumption capacity is associated with a counterintuitive rise in fertility intentions, a pattern particularly evident in urban areas. By contrast, unemployment and income instability related to occupational risk significantly reduce fertility intentions. Regional differences are also observed: urban women are more sensitive to unemployment risk, whereas rural women respond more strongly to income fluctuations. Differences in attitudes toward marriage and childbearing further exert a significant moderating effect on fertility decisions.

     

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