1672-8505

CN 51-1675/C

流动对青年生育意愿的抑制效应与作用机制基于2021年中国综合社会调查数据的分析

The Inhibitory Effect and Its Mechanisms of Mobility on Youth Fertility IntentionsAn Analysis Based on 2021 Chinese General Social Survey Data

  • 摘要: 大规模人口流动背景下,育龄青年呈现出显著的跨地域流动特征,深刻影响了他们的生育环境与生育决策逻辑。文章基于2021年中国综合社会调查数据,采用多元线性回归、工具变量法等实证模型,考察流动状态对青年生育意愿的影响及其作用机制。研究发现,流动青年的生育意愿显著低于非流动青年,且流动对男性生育意愿的抑制作用大于女性,对农村青年生育意愿的抑制作用大于城镇青年,对较高学历青年生育意愿的抑制作用大于较低学历青年。机制分析表明,流动从“生存—中断—融合”三个路径降低了青年的生育意愿:首先,流动青年迫于生存压力,需要将更多精力投入到劳动力市场中,其面临的工作家庭冲突更为严峻;其次,流动中断了流动青年原有生活轨迹,增加了其婚姻匹配难度,推迟了初婚年龄;最后,流动青年在就业地的融入,弱化了其传统家庭观念。

     

    Abstract: Amid large-scale population mobility, young people of reproductive age increasingly move across regions, reshaping their fertility environment and decision-making processes. Using data from the 2021 Chinese General Social Survey (CGSS), this study examines how mobility affects youth fertility intentions and explores the underlying mechanisms. Multiple linear regression and instrumental variable approaches are employed for empirical analysis. The results show that migrant youth exhibit significantly lower fertility intentions than their non-migrant counterparts. Mobility has a stronger dampening effect on fertility intentions among men than among women, among rural youth than urban youth, and among those with higher levels of education than those with lower levels. Further analysis suggests that mobility reduces fertility intentions through three pathways-survival pressures, life-course disruption, and social integration. First, migrant youth often face substantial economic pressures and must devote more time and energy to the labor market, intensifying work–family conflict. Second, mobility disrupts established life trajectories, making partner matching more difficult and delaying the age at first marriage. Finally, as migrant youth integrate into their places of employment, traditional family norms tend to weaken, further lowering fertility intentions.

     

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