1672-8505

CN 51-1675/C

互联网发展与中国结婚率下降

Internet Development and Declining Marriage Rate in China

  • 摘要: 互联网技术的普及与深度应用,对社会各领域产生了日益显著的影响,尤其体现在婚姻家庭领域。文章基于2010—2020年我国31个省(自治区、直辖市)面板数据,运用面板门槛模型,对互联网发展对结婚率的影响开展研究。研究发现,随着经济发展,互联网对结婚率会产生显著的单门槛效应:一是互联网发展对结婚率具有显著负向影响,对经济相对落后地区的影响更大;二是异质性分析表明东、中、西部地区虽不存在门槛效应,但互联网发展依然对各区域结婚率具有负向影响,对东、中部经济相对落后地区的影响更大。研究表明,互联网对结婚率的影响程度会随着经济发展水平的变化而变化,总体来看经济发展能降低互联网发展对结婚率的负向影响。

     

    Abstract: The widespread adoption and deepening use of internet technology have had growing impacts across many areas of society, particularly in the domain of marriage and family. Using panel data from 31 provinces, autonomous regions and municipalities in China from 2010 to 2020, this study employs a panel threshold model to examine how internet development affects the marriage rate. The results show that, as economic development progresses, internet development exhibits a significant single-threshold effect on the marriage rate. First, internet development has a significant negative effect on the marriage rate, with stronger effects observed in economically less developed regions. Second, heterogeneity analysis shows that although no threshold effect is identified in the eastern, central, or western regions, internet development still negatively affects the marriage rate in all regions, with a greater impact in economically less developed areas within the eastern and central regions. Overall, the findings suggest that the influence of internet development on the marriage rate varies with the level of economic development, and that economic development tends to mitigate the internet's negative impact on marriage rates.

     

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