Abstract: This study examines the complex causal relationships among multiple conditions shaping provincial digital government governance capabilities. Drawing on the TOE analytical framework, six antecedent conditions are identified and measured: digital technology development, digital technology application capability, organizational design, fiscal resource allocation, public demand, and intergovernmental competition. Using the fsQCA method, the study explores the influencing factors and configurational pathways that enhance provincial digital governance capacity. The findings are as follows: (1) No single factor constitutes a necessary condition for strong digital governance capacity, instead, the focus must be on the complex interactions and matching patterns among factors; (2) Five distinct pathways to strong digital governance capacity are identified, which can be grouped into three categories technology-driven, technology–organization, and technology–environment based on core conditions; (3) Technology plays a central and increasingly important role in improving governance effectiveness, underscoring the need to build new digital infrastructure and strengthen technology application capability. Overall, the study highlights the configurational nature of digital governance capacity, suggesting that local governments should leverage their resource endowments and governance characteristics, adopt the identified positive pathways, and implement targeted policies to promote the high-quality development of digital government governance.