1673-159X

CN 51-1686/N

基于多因素耦合的机动车驾驶人不安全行为风险分析

Risk Analysis of Unsafe Behaviors of Motor Vehicle Drivers Based on Multi-factor Coupling

  • 摘要: 为探讨多因素耦合的道路交通系统中,机动车驾驶人不安全行为之间耦合关系对系统的影响,基于国家车辆深度调查体系(NAIS)数据库2017—2019年共739起事故数据,构建N-K模型与耦合度模型的组合模型,通过N-K模型探讨道路交通事故致因,结合耦合度模型构建驾驶人不安全驾驶行为的风险耦合值函数,研究不安全行为之间的耦合作用。研究发现:道路交通风险水平随耦合因素数量的增加呈显著递增趋势,其中驾驶人–车辆双因素耦合的交互信息值 T\left(\mathrma,\mathrmb\right) =0.0167,是驾驶人–道路交互信息值的9.01倍,也是双因素耦合中风险最大的组合;四因素耦合交互信息值达0.0220,风险效应最强;在驾驶人不安全行为中,超速驾驶(风险耦合值 0.0822)与未按规定让行(风险耦合值0.0683)显著高于其他行为,这两种行为的事故案例数占总案例数的43.4%,是引发交通事故的核心风险源。

     

    Abstract: To explore the influence of the coupling relationship among unsafe behaviors of motor vehicle drivers on a multi-factor coupled road traffic system, a combined model of the N-K model and the coupling degree model were constructed based on a total of 739 accident data from the National Vehicle Deep Investigation System (NAIS) database from 2017 to 2019. The causes of road traffic accidents are explored through the N-K model. The risk coupling value function of drivers' unsafe driving behaviors was constructed in combination with the coupling degree model to study the coupling effect between unsafe behaviors. The research finds that the level of road traffic risk shows a significant increasing trend with the increase in the number of coupling factors. Among them, the interaction information value T(a,b) of the driver-vehicle two-factor coupling is 0.0167, which is 9.01 times the driver-road interaction information value and is also the combination with the highest risk in the two-factor coupling. The value of the four-factor coupling interaction information reached 0.0220, which indicates the strongest risk effect. Among the unsafe behaviors of drivers, speeding (with a risk coupling value of 0.0822) and failure to yield as required (with a risk coupling value of 0.0683) are significantly higher than other behaviors. The number of accident cases caused by these two behaviors accounts for 43.4% of the total number of cases, and they are the core risk sources causing traffic accidents.

     

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