2095-1124

CN 51-1738/F

数字乡村建设对乡村经济韧性的影响基于双重机器学习的实证研究

The Impact of Digital Village Construction on Rural Economic Resilience: An Empirical Study Based on Double Machine Learning

  • 摘要: 数字乡村建设是推动乡村全面振兴的一项关键性举措,对于优化乡村资源配置、促进乡村产业发展、激活乡村经济活力和提升乡村经济韧性具有重要意义。文章基于2014—2022年中国1841个县域的面板数据,将“国家级数字乡村试点”政策视作一项准自然实验,采用双重机器学习模型,实证分析数字乡村建设对乡村经济韧性的影响。研究表明:数字乡村建设能增强乡村经济韧性,该结论在经过剔除异常值、控制交互固定效应、排除并行政策影响和重设主回归模型等一系列稳健性检验后仍然成立;传导机制检验结果表明,数字乡村建设通过促进乡村创新创业推动乡村经济韧性提升;异质性分析结果表明,数字乡村建设既能提升乡村经济抵抗力,又能增强乡村经济恢复力,东部地区数字乡村建设提升乡村经济韧性的作用显著,而中、西部地区的作用不明显。基于此,文章提出完善乡村数字基础设施,激活乡村数字经济活力;推进乡村治理数字化,优化乡村创新创业环境;数字乡村建设要“见贤思齐”与“因地制宜”并重等政策建议。

     

    Abstract: Digital village construction is a key initiative for advancing comprehensive rural revitalization. It plays an important role in optimizing resource allocation, promoting industrial development, stimulating economic vitality, and enhancing rural economic resilience. Using panel data from 1,841 counties in China between 2014 and 2022, this paper regards the National Digital Village Pilot Policy as a quasi-natural experiment and employs a double machine learning model to empirically examine the impact of digital village construction on rural economic resilience. The results show that digital village construction significantly strengthens rural economic resilience. This finding remains robust after a series of tests, including outlier removal, controlling for interactive fixed effects, excluding the influence of concurrent policies, and re-estimating the main regression model. Mechanism analysis further reveals that digital village construction promotes rural innovation and entrepreneurship, thereby enhancing rural economic resilience. Heterogeneity analysis shows that digital village construction improves both the resistance and recovery capacities of rural economies, with a significant effect in the eastern region but a weaker one in the central and western regions. Based on these findings, the study proposes several policy recommendations: improving digital infrastructure to invigorate the rural digital economy, advancing digital governance to optimize the environment for rural innovation and entrepreneurship, and emphasizing both “learning from the best” and “adapting to local conditions” in digital village development.

     

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