Abstract: As artificial intelligence (AI) continues to penetrate the workplace, employees’ perceptions of being replaced by AI have become increasingly salient. Such perceptions not only affect their psychological well-being but also exert a profound influence on their innovative behavior. Drawing on Conservation of Resources (COR) theory, this study examines the double-edged sword effect of perceived AI substitution on employee innovative behavior and its boundary conditions, based on a survey of 416 enterprise employees. The results show that: (1) perceived AI substitution negatively affects employee innovative behavior through knowledge hiding, while positively promoting it by enhancing career resilience; and (2) transformational leadership exerts differentiated moderating effects on these two pathways. Specifically, high levels of transformational leadership weaken the positive relationship between perceived AI substitution and knowledge hiding—thereby attenuating the negative mediating effect of knowledge hiding—while strengthening the positive relationship between perceived AI substitution and career resilience, thus amplifying the positive mediating effect of career resilience. These findings provide theoretical and practical implications for organizations seeking to alleviate the negative impacts of perceived AI substitution and to stimulate employees’ innovative potential.