2095-1124

CN 51-1738/F

降雨量指数模型在农作物保险中的应用研究以陕西杨凌玉米为例

Application of Rainfall Index Model in Crop InsuranceTaking Maize Planting of Yangling in Shaanxi Province as an Example

  • 摘要: 文章以玉米降雨量指数保险作为研究对象,采用二次指数平滑和核密度估计法,利用陕西杨凌农业高新技术产业示范区1998—2018年的玉米产量数据和降雨量数据,建立降雨量指数模型对玉米产量和降雨量之间的关系进行量化分析。研究结果显示,该地区的玉米产量与降雨量之间存在比较明显的正向相关关系,具备开展指数保险的可行性。在此基础上,文章进一步构建该地区的玉米降雨量指数保险产品基本框架,计算得到了玉米降雨量指数保险纯费率,为设计玉米降雨量指数保险产品提供了理论参考。

     

    Abstract: This paper adopts the quadratic exponential smoothing and kernel density estimation method to process the data of corn yield and rainfall from 1998 to 2018 in Yangling agricultural high tech industry demonstration zone of Shaanxi Province. Next, it sets up a rainfall index model to quantify the relationship between rainfall and corn yield. The regression results show that there is a significant positive correlation between corn yield and rainfall in this area, and it is feasible to carry out index insurance. Therefore, the study has constructed a basic framework of corn rainfall index insurance products in this area and calculated the insurance net rate, which can provide a theoretical reference for the design of corn rainfall index insurance products.

     

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