Purpose/SignificanceAffectedby the superposition effect of Sino-US trade friction and African swine fever epidemic, the price of live pigs in Sichuan Province in 2019 fluctuated greatly, which seriously affects the daily life of residents. In this context, the quantitative analysis of the relevant factors that affect the price of live pigs, and clarifying the transmission mechanism of upstream and downstream prices are of great significance for the government to adjust macro-control policies and effectively stabilize market prices.

Method/ProcessThis paper takes the data of pigs, soybean meal, piglets and the 16-week hog price in Sichuan Province from 2015 to 2019 as the research samples, and uses the vector error correction model and the Granger causality test to explore their interactionrelationship.

Results/ConclusionsThe short-term related impact will have a greater influence on the market price of pigs in Sichuan. However, in the long run, the price of live pigs will stabilize with the weakening of relevant factors. Based on the above conclusions, the paper proposes to strengthen the government's macro policy continuity and predictability, actively explore the raw material market for pigs, speed up the import substitution production, improve the timing and targets of existing pig subsidies, and accelerate the implementation of hog futures and hog price insurance to stabilize the hog market price.