2095-1124

CN 51-1738/F

生态保护视阈下长江经济带碳排放效率与经济高质量发展的时空耦合研究

Spatio-temporal Coupling Study of Carbon Emission Efficiency and High-quality Economic Development in the Yangtze River Economic Belt under Ecological Protection Constraints

  • 摘要: 随着中国经济进入新常态,提升碳排放效率不仅是推动经济转型的关键路径,更是实现生态保护与绿色发展的核心环节。长江经济带是国家“共抓大保护、不搞大开发”战略的重要区域,研究其碳排放效率与经济高质量发展的关系,对保障流域生态安全和促进区域协调发展具有重要意义。文章以长江经济带108个城市为研究对象,综合运用熵值法、超效率-SBM法、耦合协调度模型和随机效应Tobit回归模型,分析2013—2022年碳排放效率和经济高质量发展的时空耦合关系及其驱动因素。研究结果显示:长江经济带碳排放效率和经济高质量发展水平均呈上升趋势,但增速偏缓;耦合度与耦合协调度呈同步上升态势,但整体协调水平仍然偏低;耦合协调度在空间上呈“东高西低”格局,区域核心城市辐射带动效应不足;产业结构、技术创新、对外开放和环境规制对耦合协调度具有显著正向影响,而能源污染强度则产生抑制作用。基于此,文章提出应完善碳排放效率考核机制,强化跨区域协作与核心城市引领,实施差异化生态规制,促进区域协同绿色发展。

     

    Abstract: Improving carbon emission efficiency while sustaining high-quality economic development has become a critical challenge for regions pursuing ecological protection and green transformation in the context of China’s economic transition. As a key strategic region under China’s principle of “prioritizing ecological conservation and curbing excessive development”, the Yangtze River Economic Belt provides an important case for examining the interactive dynamics between carbon emission efficiency and economic development quality. Based on panel data from 108 prefecture-level cities between 2013 and 2022, this study constructs an integrated analytical framework combining the entropy weighting method, a super-efficiency slacks-based measure (SBM) model, a coupling coordination model, and a random-effects Tobit regression. The results indicate that both carbon emission efficiency and high-quality economic development in the Yangtze River Economic Belt exhibit upward trends over the study period, albeit with relatively modest growth rates. The degree of coupling and coordination between the two systems has also increased synchronously, yet the overall coordination level remains low. Spatially, the coupling coordination degree displays a clear “high in the east and low in the west” pattern, reflecting limited spillover effects from regional core cities. Further analysis reveals that industrial structure upgrading, technological innovation, external openness, and environmental regulation exert significant positive effects on coupling coordination, whereas energy-related pollution intensity has a pronounced inhibitory impact. These findings suggest that enhancing carbon efficiency governance requires improvements in performance evaluation mechanisms, stronger cross-regional coordination led by core cities, and the implementation of differentiated ecological regulatory policies to promote regionally coordinated green development.

     

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