2095-1124

CN 51-1738/F

信用评级对企业债券违约预警的有效性研究

Research on the Effectiveness of Credit Rating on the Early Warning of Corporate Bond Default

  • 摘要: 信用评级通常被认为是企业债券违约风险的重要预警指标,信用评级的准确性和前瞻性对于促进债券市场健康发展极为重要。本文使用中国非金融上市企业债券违约数据,探究企业信用评级对债券违约率的预警有效性,深入考察信用评级虚高、失真现象。研究发现:企业信用评级对债券违约的预警作用并不显著;当信用评级由高评级区间向低评级区间变化时预警作用越来越弱,在低信用评级区间信用评级上升反而显著提高违约概率。进一步探究发现,信用评级无法很好地反映企业基本面信息和宏观经济信息,造成评级信息的失真。

     

    Abstract: Credit rating is often considered a vital early warning indicator for corporate bond default risks, and the accuracy and forward-looking nature of credit ratings are crucial to promote the healthy development of the bond market. This study examines the effectiveness of corporate credit ratings as an early warning signal for bond defaults by analyzing bond default data from non-financial listed enterprises in China. Additionally, the study delves into the problem of inflated and distorted credit ratings. The findings reveal that the early warning effect of corporate credit ratings on bond defaults is not significant. Moreover, when credit ratings change from high to low, the early warning effect becomes weaker. A higher credit rating in the low credit rating range significantly increases the probability of default. Further analysis indicates that credit ratings cannot accurately reflect fundamental and macroeconomic information of enterprises, leading to distorted rating information.

     

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