2095-1124

CN 51-1738/F

数字经济与城市生态韧性的时空动态特征及其耦合协调度研究基于珠三角地区的实证分析

Spatio-temporal Dynamic Characteristics of Digital Economy and Urban Ecological Resilience and its Coupling Coordination: An Empirical Analysis in the Pearl River Delta Region

  • 摘要: 实现数字经济与城市生态韧性协调发展是推动城镇化高质量发展与美丽城市建设的有效路径之一。在构建数字经济与城市生态韧性评估指标体系的基础上,运用熵权法、TOPSIS模型、耦合协调模型与PLSR模型,对2012—2021年珠三角地区各城市数字经济发展、城市生态韧性的时空动态特征及其耦合协调与影响关系进行实证研究。结果表明:(1)珠三角地区各城市数字经济发展经历了缓慢发展期和蓬勃发展期两个阶段,政策引领是数字经济发展的主要推动力,各城市数字经济发展水平呈现“梯队式”发展趋势。(2)珠三角地区各城市生态韧性水平在空间上呈现“中心高周边低”的特征,广州、深圳与东莞的城市生态韧性水平高于其他城市。(3)珠三角地区数字经济发展对城市生态韧性提升具有显著的赋能作用,并且数字经济发展对不同城市的赋能效应具有显著差异,数字基础设施、数字产业化是推动珠三角地区城市生态韧性提升的最主要因素。(4)珠三角地区各城市数字经济与城市生态韧性的耦合协调程度呈现“两超一强多弱”状态,仅广州、深圳两城处于高度耦合协调阶段。基于上述研究结论,文章提出未来珠三角地区需要坚持政策引领,着力推动二三线城市数字经济的发展;发挥生态优势,巩固发展各城市的特色生态产业;重视中心城市的引领作用,助推周边城市数字经济与生态环境协调发展。

     

    Abstract: The coordinated development of the digital economy and urban ecological resilience is one of the effective ways to promote the high-quality development of urbanization and the construction of beautiful cities. This study examines the interplay between digital economy growth and urban ecological resilience in the Pearl River Delta region from 2012 to 2021. Utilizing a combination of entropy weight method, TOPSIS model, coupled coordination model, and PLSR model, it constructs an evaluation index system to analyze the spatial-temporal dynamics, coupling coordination, and influence relationship between these two factors. The findings reveal: (1) a transformation in digital economy development characterized by a slow phase followed by a rapid growth phase, primarily driven by policy guidance, with an “echelon” pattern of development across cities; (2) urban ecological resilience displaying a spatial trend of being higher in central areas and lower in peripheral ones, with Guangzhou, Shenzhen, and Dongguan leading in resilience levels; (3) a significant positive impact of digital economy development on enhancing urban ecological resilience, with variations among cities, and digital infrastructure and industrialization being key contributors; (4) the coupling coordination between digital economy and ecological resilience mostly shows a pattern of two cities outperforming others, with only Guangzhou and Shenzhen reaching a high level of coupled coordination. The study suggests that future strategies in the Pearl River Delta should focus on leveraging policy guidance to boost digital economy in lesser-developed cities, utilizing ecological strengths to build unique industries, and emphasizing the central cities’ role in fostering coordinated digital and ecological development.

     

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